Crypto

Dream

Flood of fast info in USA. Organise and simplify it into beauty and power like a concerto (25/1/20).

Organise and simplify flood of fast info into beauty and power like a concerto

B: I update my mental maps daily and evolve. I never stand still. // Nothing stays the same. Everything changes. Always. Forever.

Info coming in: Review 1x/day – evening.

1. Twitter (curated feed. Follow who the top practitioners follow and who adds value)
2. Telegram anncmt channels (official ones)
3. Discord anncmts.
4. Top movers and trends on Coinmarketcap.com
5. For PCVs, claim and autostake daily. After mint fully redeemed (5d), compare staking to ‘minting and claiming’ to decide on the next 5 days and calendarise the next review: Calculator
6. Weekly on chain analysis: Cryptoquant

How review it?

1. Scan the info.
2. See/hear ss/dd imbalances immediately.
   1. Write exit plan.
      1. Make crypto trades with monthly or at least bi-weekly holds (I checked annualised actual trading costs – expensive when compounded). Plan your trades to the end before making them (10-21)
   1. Size the oppo (35% of Kelly) in Crypto GSheets. Consider total exposure and correlations.
   2. Enter lmt+tick. Wait 30sec dep on market speed then cross spread. Automate exit plan, ideally.
3. If need to research more, put as task on Todoist if not urgent, else G Calendar if urgent. Do now if super urgent.

Always use checklist for coins and Defi

• Checklist: https://trello.com/b/bAofJElS/crypto-trading
• Do you believe your HODLs add value to and can change the world? No-> Sell for ETH. Yes –> Hold and DCA.
• Don’t buy pumps. BE EARLY!
• With Defi, maintain your share of the cashflow i.e. rewards must out-weigh coin dilution (Calculator Guy, Ad Infinitum)

Finding LPs

Execution of Hedged Leveraged Defi

1. Review bookmark list of sites (sites chosen from analysis on Defillamad and typed in Crypto GSheets)
   1. Yield – annual Perp funding = total yield.
   2. Require ‘yield > (1 – issued/total, that will be the price decline from inflation)’ so maintain share of the cashflow (Ad Infinitum).
2. Always borrow the stablecoin, not the main coin! (else short the main coin!)
   1. Can see the effects of this in this calculator.
3. Only do 2x leverage (50% debt), else too much value destruction in price decline.
   1. Only leverage an LP if it is hedged, as IL becomes massive in leveraged LPs (see calculator) cell K129 area
4. Make sure you are not liquidated! 
   1. Check debt level every 3 days and after large price drops: Buffer>30%
5. Dynamic hedging every 3 days and after big move
   1. Adjust hedge # when # coins change – check ever: Within 10% threshold
6. Check net yield including perp payments every 3 days
   1. Use tool from Max, with the yields pasted into my Excel sheet: Substantially > 20% and better than alternatives

Execution of Unhedged UnLeveraged Defi

1. Extremely high yield ‘risky asset + stablecoin‘ LPs: yield > 250%
   1. If price of risky asset in an LP drops 90%, the LP doesn’t, it drops to 32%, as it is half stable coin. 
      1. The yield is multiplied by the asset value (32% of original). See Calculator above.
   2. If yield > 250% then only lose if risky asset drops MORE THAN 90%.
   3. Entry: Check yield and tokenomics potential dilution (put that in GSheets)
   4. Exit:
      1. Hold for a year
      2. Watch watchlist in Coinmarketcap to see if goes below 90% from entry – if so, then exit. 
      3. Exit if yield drops below 250%.
   5. Sizing: Wtd EV ~0.2 (proxy by 0.5 W, 1.4:1 payoff)
   6. Only leverage an LP if it is hedged, as IL becomes massive in leveraged LPs (see calculator) cell K129 area.

2. Don’t do: Extremely high yield pairs which are correlated – NO! Correlation is fleeting and massive swings possible (AVAX/FTM in 2H21).

Systems

1. Trend (3Commas): List of coins
   1. Daily trend
      1. Portfolio multi symbol with 3Commas
      2. MVIS25 index Perp on FTX with 3Commas (two DCh systems). Check perpetual payments on FTX
   2. ST trend (no longer)
2. 3 month breakout on TV
   1. TV screener
3. HODL
4. Short: automated in 3C
   1. Daily: BTC,ETH,MATIC; EMA85 + MACDhist condition
5. Defi
   1. Defi
      1. For PCVs, trade based on discount to Treasury Value as the APY is dilutive (Bludex’s reviews in Medium) and compare staking to ‘minting and claiming’ ev 5 days or after claiming ended, so not diluted: Calculator
   1. Defi document
      1. R code
      2. R result
      3. Excel
6. ICOs and NFTs (do WEIT to buy wholesale and sell retail)
   1. GDoc
   2. GSheet

Other links

• Sizing and tracking GSheet
• 3Commas
• Master initial Doc
• Map of crypto trading on Mindmup.
• FTX Premiums
• Binance Premiums
• Convert Binance premiums to annualised so can compare with FTX premiums
• Anyswap Bridge explorer to find funds – paste in your wallet address

Defi – the key is ss and dd like for all other alpha, and low IL

• Net demand for trading on an LP gives trading volume which gives fees
  1. Utility for a coin
  2. Choose the highest volume platform as that is where most people go, by definition.
  3. Choose the best LP on a platform – look at trading volume again.
  4. Low supply of alternative trading locations: 
     1. No major CEXs for a coin. A small CEX is fine as people won’t be bothered with the account setup.
     2. Not many other DEXs
• Low IL
  1. Defi or all-in, given impermanent loss? A: IF expected return > 200% probably better All-In. ELSE if yield above 60% probably better in LP as it counteracts IL. See chart below:
• 
• Source: https://solfarm.medium.com/solfarmers-education-leveraged-yield-farming-369be98e7acc