I chose a very high financial deserve level. Volatility is part of wealth creation in investments; Volatility is real and natural. I deserve success because I pray and take action on the right causes. I don’t sabotage my success. No drama triangle: I am not consistently a rescuer, victim or persecutor (book on Self Sabotage). …
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Trading in the Zone
Every trade has an uncertain outcome. Don’t try to avoid something that is unavoidable. I accept the risk. Trade without fear or overconfidence, perceive what the market is offering from its perspective, stay completely focused in the “now moment opportunity flow,” and spontaneously enter the ‘zone’ – a strong virtually unshakeable belief in an uncertain …
Luck
Some days you are lucky, some days you are not. Check no mistakes made, and distributions within historical bounds. FX hedging to future spending may have no implicit edge, but by definition it has value. Some days, everything goes against your position, and maybe even BA trades don’t get closed. As long as security selection, …
Small gains and losses add up
Small gains and losses add up. USD200 per trading day = NZD80,000 per year which is enough to live off after tax.
I now “get” / understand volatility from experience
Lesson learned Th 5/12/19 Main account Day 1: Down $1k. All down – stocks, bonds, ST corporate bonds, ZIV and USD. Many futures fell also. Why? People selling USD assets as poor growth news, trade war, and impeachment risk. Day 2: Stocks down again per above. Bonds rallied as safe haven and expect lower LT …
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Diversification of positive expectancy systems works
On 31/1/20, BA fell sharply as the five positions didn’t get exited, when the market opened lower and fell over 1%. Lost about $1k. Long term this system has positive expectancy. Simultaneously, near term lean hogs fell sharply on coronavirus fears. I had a spread which was long a longer dated future and it made …
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Financial: Spend <= budget for life; no financial leaks globally
Spend <= budget regardless of trading gains, for life Don’t spend trading gains. You can make $5 Mon-Th then lose the whole $5 on Fri (22-11-19) Withdrawal rate based on lowest 5% Monte Carlo, less tax and inflation When spending from portfolio, take the lowest 5% Monte Carlo CAGR over 1,000 runs (from WL), less …
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Margin
I never have positions auto-liquidated, ever (affects spread, commission and exposure adversely) Preview margin implications before you submit a tradeDaily Margin Reports Futures Reg. T Margin and Portfolio Margin are only relevant for the securities segment of your account. Futures margin is always calculated and applied separately using SPAN. Margin for a futures position is …
Futures vs ETFs
You earn the total return when you buy and hold a real bond or a bond ETF. By contrast, bond futures are financed instruments, so you earn the excess return (total return MINUS financing cost). So all else equal, futures will ALWAYS perform worse than a bond, because of the drag from the financing cost …
Data
Charting software Great list on Quantpedia: https://quantpedia.com/links-tools/ Stockcharts.com TradingView.com Very fast. Robotjames and Kris use it Seasonax Seasonal data and patterns. Excellent. Spreadcharts USD 359. Great futures data Pinnacle USD 99, 98 commodities, CLC Data. You control linking method. https://eodhistoricaldata.com/Brilliant. $20 per month Quandl: “Far and away the easiest to deal with and least hassle” …