VIX: constant measure of 1-month implied volatility of SPX Index options. 23 days and less than 37 days to the Friday SPX expiration are used to calculate the VIX Index. These SPX options are then weighted to yield a constant, 30-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index. VIX9D: estimates the expected …
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OCI: Optimal compound investing
Beliefs Buffett and the Intelligent Investor’s approach still works. Bill Ackman read the latter. It is based on growth and value. Process Buffett and Ben Graham #1: Margin of safety. #2: If Mr Market offers a price below value, take it. If he offers a price above value, either hold or sell. #3: Mindset: Owning …
Trading assistance
Keep yourfirstchild . org as the hosting uses it Overall trading flow Psych diary #1: Don’t lose money (Buffett) Takes longer to make money if have to make back what you lost. NEVER RUSH THE CONTRACT ADDRESS to wallet OR A SWAP TO A DEX Take everything into account including insight, and qualitative factors. Don’t …
Crypto
Dream Flood of fast info in USA. Organise and simplify it into beauty and power like a concerto (25/1/20). Organise and simplify flood of fast info into beauty and power like a concerto B: I update my mental maps daily and evolve. I never stand still. // Nothing stays the same. Everything changes. Always. Forever. …
Healthy psych
“First, the only certainty is that there is no certainty. Second, every decision, as a consequence, is a matter of weighing probabilities. Third, despite uncertainty we must decide and we must act. And lastly, we need to judge decisions not only on the results, but on how they were made.”Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin to University …
Don’t lose money; Make money in crashes
8. VXX has a lot of contango, but VXZ holds up very well with good hedging and little contango, even after 50% SPY COVID19 recovery 1H20.
Robustness of RD
Bond and equity return factors, multiplied by beta for BA (beta to QQQ) and AntiRD (to bond index), and SPYSTR factor. Bond factor applied to: TMF, the UBT (bond) part of SSOUBT, and AntiRD. Equity factor applied to: BullmktUSA, PLM, the SSO (equity) part of SSOUBT and BA. Alpha factor: Assume 50% chance of 1/3 …
Pension hedge
Hedge just the stock component; see Word doc. USD105 as at 7/3/20 (out of USD126k total). USD77k is non Australasian, being 77%. Hedge 100% of stock (best), so USD105k Each platform shows the stock/foreign stock/fixed interest/cash breakdown, so simple math. Use ES as diversified, and not as volatile as Russell and Nasdaq. 80_300E AND V30 …
Tail risk
What causes big drops in securities? Analyst says sector facing headwinds Overreaction to benign earnings call (transcript may be released 2 wks later) CL and Middle East conflict HO and weather
Prices
CNBC pre-market Stockcharts Reuters market news Commodities news and prices – barchart.com ETF price Oanda FX converter Oanda financing FX carry – futures CB Policy rates and BIS